Ottoneu Auctioneering Series Part IV: On PoTP Assessments of Current Stars
By: Brad Williamson
Topic: Ottoneu, PoTP
Previous entries in our auctioneering series can be found here:
I’d now like to analyze some current players. This will hopefully paint a picture of how our PoTP system’s values match up against current ADPs and expectations. For this exercise I will be using Steamer predictions for 2020. Though you might disagree with some of these predictions, this is a good baseline from which to gain insight. The only discrepancy is that Steamer doesn’t account for pitcher HBP, so I will assume each of the starters hits five batters and each reliever hits three when doing calculations (each HBP is only worth 3 points or about one-ten-thousandth of a PoTP, so it’s not very significant).
We discussed this in detail in part II of this series, but here is the Fangraphs Points scoring template for reference:
And here are some of the different projections with PoTP, hard cap, and exception values listed:
Trout (NFC ADP: 2.28): 528 AB / 157 H / 29 2B / 3 3B / 44 HR / 138 BB+HBP / 14 SB / 5 CS
- 1,292.6 points, 6.46 PoTP, $20 hard cap, $26 exception, $39 big exception
Yelich (NFC ADP: 2.45): 570 AB / 174 H / 35 2B / 4 3B / 36 HR / 93 BB+HBP / 22 SB / 7 CS
- 1,168.3 points, 5.84 PoTP, $17 hard cap, $23 exception, $35 big exception
Rendon (NFC ADP: 21.09): 565 AB / 161 H / 37 2B / 2 3B / 28 HR / 84 BB+HBP / 4 SB / 2 CS
- 972.5 points, 4.86 PoTP, $14 hard cap, $19 exception, $29 big exception
Soto (NFC ADP: 12.41): 534 AB / 156 H / 30 2B / 4 3B / 34 HR / 106 BB+HBP / 9 SB / 4 CS
- 1,092.9 points, 5.47 PoTP, $17 hard cap, $22 exception, $33 big exception
Freeman (NFC ADP: 16.31): 568 AB / 166 H / 36 2B / 2 3B / 33 HR / 88 BB+HBP / 6 SB / 3 CS
- 1,054.6 points, 5.27 PoTP, $16 hard cap, $21 exception, $32 big exception
DeGrom (NFC ADP: 8.78): 205.0 IP / 259 K / 168 H / 54 BB+HBP / 24 HR
- 1,141 points, 5.71 PoTP, $17 hard cap, $23 exception, $35 big exception
Buehler (NFC ADP: 17.16): 194.0 IP / 225 K / 169 H / 57 BB+HBP / 25 HR
- 967.7 points, 4.84 PoTP, $14 hard cap, $19 exception, $29 big exception
Castillo (NFC ADP: 48.48): 190.0 IP / 215 K / 169 H / 73 BB+HBP / 25 HR
- 870.1 points, 4.35 PoTP, $13 hard cap, $17 exception, $26 big exception
Hand (NFC ADP: 119.76): 65.0 IP / 80 K / 54 H / 26 BB+HBP / 9 HR / 33 SV
- 476.9 points, 2.38 PoTP, $8 hard cap, $10 exception, $15 big exception
Pagan (NFC ADP: 166.46): 65.0 IP / 81 K / 53 H / 22 BB+HBP / 10 HR / 31 SV
- 471.2 points, 2.36 PoTP, $7 hard cap, $9 exception, $14 big exception
Sometimes the values this system returns seem low, but that is the point. Using PoTP helps temper bias, expectation, and human nature. You might expect the world from a certain player, but these are the values that the system wherein you are playing says these players are worth. It has standardized their capital so that you don’t have to guess or estimate value. These are market values in a vacuum. When you leave that vacuum and enter the draft room it is so easy to get caught up in the moment and overbid, but missing out on a player because you’re not willing to overpay is better than paying $60 for an ace pitcher who gets injured in spring training or underperforms.
You can also think of PoTP as a kind of adjusted draft value, similar to wRC+ or ERA-. By wisely using your six exceptions you combat the most negative effects of these conservative limits. Otherwise, don’t stretch beyond what the system tells you players are worth based off your own predictions, which is the beauty of it all: you actually decide how the players are standardized. Just ensure your predictions are reasonable and you should be fit to win your leagues!
In the conclusion of this series, Part V will offer free downloads of our PoTP spreadsheets along with explanations and instructions for using and customizing them. Be sure not to miss it and thank you for reading!